by Miguel Toro The last week of the first month of the campaign dealt with the aftermath of the first presidential debate. It seemed that Ricardo Anaya had the best showing in the debate, thus the other candidates focused on trying to win the “post-debate.” Front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s advisers spent most of the week explaining the meaning of his “amnesty” proposal. They indicated that the amnesty proposal really signifies a peacebuilding process that involves transitional justice. As for José Antonio Meade’s campaign, they doubled down on the accusations of AMLO’s supposed two apartments. That debate actually got AMLO’s attention, who responded that those small apartments were handed over to his sons. However, it seems farfetched to think that this situation could actually do much damage to AMLO’s campaign. Nevertheless, there are still no election polls post-debate, and until then, it will not be clear if the past week had an effect on the race. With respect to the election polls, as mentioned above, no new surveys have been released so the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx remains unchanged, with its predictive model still believing López Obrador has a 90 percent chance of winning. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 20, 2018 Source: Oraculus.mx An interesting survey released the week before—but was overshadowed by the presidential polls and the debate news—was the Reforma newspaper survey of the Chamber of Deputies election race. On July 1st, there will be congressional elections in Mexico and both chambers have seats up for election. This survey only reflects effective voting intentions for the Chamber of Deputies but shows the overall strength of the AMLO coalition in the lower house. Based on how electoral laws are written in Mexico (i.e. that there are single-member plurality districts but also proportional representation seats in both chambers), a party (or coalition) who gets around 42 percent of the vote actually gets around absolute majority (50%+1) of congressional seats. Right now, AMLO’s coalition is really close to that threshold and, depending on what happens to the PRD after the election (especially if the Anaya Front loses), the left (Morena, PT, PRD, and maybe even the Citizens’ Movement party) could easily have absolute majority (which is needed to pass bills like the budget every year). Figure 2. Chamber of Deputies voting preferences by party (April 2018 Source: Own elaboration based on Reforma’s data. In terms of the campaign events and proposals that occurred last week, the presidential candidates went to the Tecnológico de Monterrey to speak with its students and with bankers in an annual event organized by Citibanamex. In general, they repeated their campaign slogans and main proposals, but there were some interesting developments:
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by Miguel Toro The fourth week of the campaign can be divided into two major happenings: 1.) The difference of opinions on what to do with the new Mexico City Airport project between Carlos Slim (who publicly defended the project based on its positive economic impact in the area) and front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) (who wants to cancel it based on corruption and excessive cost allegations); and 2.) The first Mexican presidential debate where all the candidates talked about security, corruption, and democracy. On Monday April 16, Carlos Slim held a news conference in which he explained why he thought the new airport project was crucial for Mexico’s economic development. Later that day, AMLO responded that, if the project was so good, maybe Slim should build it entirely with his own funds and the Mexican government could lease it out to him. However, this confrontation of opinions portrayed AMLO in a negative way throughout mainstream media, as his response reminded people of the typical angry López Obrador response to those who think differently from him. At the end of the week, the Mexican presidential candidates faced the electorate in the first of three debates scheduled during the campaign. During the April 22nd debate, the candidates had to speak on a combination of subjects, including insecurity, violence, anti-corruption efforts, impunity, democracy, and the rights of vulnerable groups. The debate’s format allowed a more aggressive exchange of ideas between the candidates without solving all of the issues that impede Mexican candidates to adequately confront policy choices. They gave some proposals, they attacked each other, they did not give in-depth explanations of the feasibility of those proposals, they attacked each other again, and they had to answer a couple of questions from the three moderators. An in-depth analysis of what happened during the debate can be heard in the latest episode of the Mexico Institute’s “Expert Take” podcast. Below is a brief bullet-point summary of the debate: Security
During the past week, three polls were released showing that AMLO continues to be the front-runner with an average of 43 percent in effective voting intentions compared to 29 percent for Ricardo Anaya, 21 percent for José Antonio Meade, 5 percent for Margarita Zavala and 3 percent for Jaime Rodriguez “El Bronco.” Therefore, Oraculus.mx’s model, based on their poll of polls, continues to give AMLO a 90 percent chance of winning. Table 1. Summary of Polls Released in 4th Week of Campaign Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 20, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
by Miguel Toro The second week of the presidential campaign was marked by the controversial decision from the Electoral Tribunal to allow Nuevo León governor Jaime Rodríguez, or “El Bronco,” to run in the presidential race. He had previously been disqualified by the National Electoral Institute after he had not reached the minimum signature threshold required to be registered as an independent candidate.[1] In March of this year, both “El Bronco” and Senator Armando Ríos Piter were disqualified from the presidential race because although they had supposedly gathered more than the 866,000 signatures needed, a substantial amount of them were invalid or fake signatures. However, in a divided vote –four versus three– the judges (magistrados) of the Electoral Tribunal indicated that there was insufficient time for “El Bronco” and his team to go over all of the signatures that had been invalidated by the INE, thus violating his electoral rights. The INE then denounced El Bronco’s candidacy in the Special Electoral Crimes Prosecutors’ Office (Fiscalía Especial para Delitos Electorales or FEPADE in Spanish) for diverse irregularities in the collection of the signatures. The investigation is ongoing and will take time to solve, but despite the social media backlash and the now public confrontation between both electoral institutions, “El Bronco” has been allowed into the race, which, for many, puts into question the institutions’ capacity to properly conduct this election. Reading between the lines, to many political pundits and analysts, allowing “El Bronco” into the race favors the PRI, as the rancher-like bravado from the Nuevo León governor and his outsider status could take away some votes from López Obrador, especially in Mexico’s northern states. However, until there are new polls that include El Bronco, this hypothesis cannot be tested. With respect to the other candidates, all attended meetings with the American Chamber of Commerce on Monday. Relevant remarks by the candidates included the following: Margarita Zavala
During this week there were no polls released, therefore AMLO continues to be the front-runner with an average of 43 percent in effective voting intentions compared to 29 percent for Ricardo Anaya, 23 percent for José Antonio Meade, and 6 percent for Margarita Zavala. There is still no new data for Jaime Rodriguez “El Bronco.” Therefore, Oraculus.mx’s model based on their poll of polls continues to give AMLO a 92 percent chance of winning. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 15, 2018 Source: Oraculus.mx [1] Frequent podcast contributor Carlos Bravo Regidor anticipated that this would happen on Episode 17 of the Expert Take.
by Miguel Toro The first week of the presidential campaign was marked by a rare moment of unity among all the candidates. Everyone denounced President Trump’s intention to send the U.S. National Guard to the U.S.-Mexico border as a way of protecting against illegal immigration. The misunderstanding of the meaning of the “migrant caravan” –a symbolic protest of the tremendous sufferings these migrants face in their homelands and abroad –made President Trump lash out against Mexico, threatening to eliminate “Mexico’s cash cow NAFTA” if the country would not do more to stop illegal immigration into the United States. This unified all politicians as the Mexican Senate recommended that the President stop cooperating on any security program or policy with the United States government until President Trump offered an apology and respected Mexico. President Enrique Peña Nieto offered his harshest comments towards President Trump, saying that if he was frustrated with internal politics and how the U.S. Congress was not supporting his initiatives, then he should direct his actions toward them and not on Mexico and its people. During his speech, President Peña quoted every single presidential candidate, all of whom issued statements against the rhetoric and directive of President Trump. Returning to the campaign trail, as expected, every candidate decided to start in different places and emphasized distinct messages. Front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador started in the border city of Ciudad Juárez (a historical place where his idol, 19th century president Benito Juárez, upheld the Mexican government during the French invasion) and visited several cities in the north of the country (Matamoros, Tamaulipas; Piedras Negras, Coahuila). He promised that Mexicans would be able to work where they were born as the country would produce everything it eats (agricultural autarky) and offer scholarships and apprentice-like positions for the so-called ‘ninis’ (a term that describes the youth that neither study nor work). Meanwhile, Ricardo Anaya campaigned in the central part of Mexico (Jalisco; Guanajuato; Puebla; Veracruz) after kicking things off in the upscale Santa Fe neighborhood in Mexico City. He made numerous campaign promises (he says he will have a new proposal each day). Among the items he promised was the idea that he would cut the value-added tax on the border cities in half in order to be more competitive against the sale tax rates on the U.S. side. Additionally, he promised that women would have better wages and equal opportunities, including making a focus of his government to stop violence against women. He also indicated that he would recreate the Citizen Security Ministry (the Public Security Ministry was incorporated into the Ministry of the Interior by President Peña) to better fight organized crime in conjunction with furthering the civil society organizations that fight corruption. José Antonio Meade began his campaign in Yucatan promising to solve various issues the state faces (i.e. more full-time schools to help mothers work longer shifts; health and hydraulic infrastructure) as part of his program “Advancing with You,” which stresses the idea of creating a government adequate to each person’s needs. However, as he campaigned in other states, he also focused his narrative on combatting corruption. With this in mind, he finally presented (he was the final candidate to present the three declarations of personal wealth that the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, IMCO, created) an extensive version of his wealth and resources declarations, urging his rivals to present this extended version. Margarita Zavala’s campaign started at the Angel de la Independencia monument in Mexico City. From there, she campaigned in Guerrero, Morelos, and the State of Mexico, where the people have been greatly affected by violence as security policies were the focus of the first week of her campaign. She has been more specific than most candidates regarding security policies as she proposed doubling the size of the federal police, investing in new surveillance technology, reforming the judicial system, prioritizing the combat of femicides and missing people, and a jail-modernizing program. She also incorporated into her security advisors former intelligence agency member Alejandro Hope (who you can hear in our Expert Take podcast analyzing security policies). Several polls were released coinciding with the first week of the campaigns. The following table sums up their numbers: Table 1. Summary of Polls Released in 1st Week of Campaigns Using Oraculus.mx’s model based on their poll of polls, AMLO has a 92% chance of winning. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 9, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
by Miguel Toro
The 2018 Mexican election campaign began this past Friday, March 30. From this point onwards, candidates for the presidency, governor races, the Mexican Congress, and hundreds of local positions will campaign, attempting to persuade voters that they are the right choice.
This will be the biggest election in Mexico’s history as there are 3,416 positions up for grabs in 30 out of the 32 states. In general, current poll numbers suggest important shifts in political power throughout the country. The left-wing Morena party is ahead in polls for congressional positions in both chambers and will be competitive in 6 of the 9 governor races (especially in Mexico City and the small state of Morelos).1 Meanwhile, the incumbent party, the PRI, is attempting to be the second largest party in Congress, but is barely ahead of the right-wing PAN in opinion polls. In terms of governor races, despite being the incumbent in 3 of the 9 states with elections this year, the PRI starts the campaign behind other parties in the polls in every state. It is the “Frente” –a right-wing-left-wing electoral alliance between the PAN, PRD, and Citizens’ Movement party–which seems very competitive in 8 of the 9 states, particularly Guanajuato and Jalisco.
Figure 1. Voting support for Congress by party
The AMLO coalition (Morena + PT + PES) will have around 40% of seats in Congress.
Source: Own elaboration with data from El Financiero newspaper’s March 22, 2018 poll.
In terms of the presidential race, at the start of the campaign, left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador sits comfortably in first place in every poll with around 40 percent of voting intention, which represents a 12 percentage point lead with respect to Ricardo Anaya. The PAN, PRD, and Citizen Movement coalition candidate is the runner up with around 28 percent of voting support and ahead of incumbent PRI party candidate José Antonio Meade who has around 22 percent of voting support on average in the polls. Much farther behind, the only independent candidate in this race, former First Lady Margarita Zavala (former PAN member), has around 5 percent of voting support. These numbers are taken from the poll of polls compiled by Oraculus.mx, where they note that in most opinion surveys there are at least 25 percent of voters who remain undecided.
*Note: All of these polls were done before the start of the campaign contemplating more independent candidates that in the end did not make the cut-off point. Those are aggregated into the “Others” category.
Source: Own elaboration with data compiled from the “Poll of Polls” done by Oraculus.mx
[1] Based on polling data from El Financiero pollster Dr. Alejandro Moreno.
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