by Miguel Toro One month away from election day, the last week of May was dominated with the discussion of something that sprung from the second presidential debate: PRI’s candidate José Antonio Meade’s accusation that proposed proportional representation senator from Morena, Nestora Salgado, should not be allowed to run because she is a criminal. Meade said during the debate that front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador harbors all sorts of shady people in his party like Nestora Salgado, a Mexican woman (with an American citizenship) that was accused in court of kidnapping, killing and extorting people in a small town in the poor state of Guerrero where she was the rural-police commander. Rural-police is a rough translation as these are self-defense police-like groups formed by indigenous people in marginalized communities that have been plagued by organized crime, that in essence are paramilitary groups that in some states have been legalized (as is the case of Guerrero since 2011). Thanks to these laws, the accusations against Nestora Salgado were disregarded by three federal level judges and Mrs. Salgado was freed after being captured by the Mexican army. Now, Morena has her among the top 10 people in their proportional representation list for the Senate. Considering vote intentions for that party, it is likely she will become a Senator (with legal immunity while her term lasts) and the PRI considered using her as a way to relate AMLO with corrupt or criminally charged people. It must be noted, that the National Electoral Institute ordered the PRI to take down a TV spot where they accused Nestora and AMLO of being criminals under the claim of slandering them. The other topic heavily discussed over the last couple of days is the strength of AMLO’s campaign and the real possibility that he will control both Chambers of Congress. A Consulta Mitofsky poll released on May 24th, showed that in their estimates for both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, AMLO’s coalition is not only prone to be the biggest in Congress, but also possibly having absolute majority (50%+1 of all seats) and the PRI in their historic lows. According to the poll, AMLO’s coalition comprised of Morena, the Labour Party (PT) and the Evangelical Social Encounter Party (PES) could get up to 71 out of 128 Senators and 288 out of 500 Deputies. Meanwhile, the PRI who is currently the biggest party in Congress, would plummet to a maximum of 22 (out of 128) Senators and 62 (out of 500) Deputies. The entire estimates for Senators and Deputies can be seen in the following image property of El Economista newspaper who paid for this poll. Figure 1. Consulta Mitofsky’s Congress Poll (May 24th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s coalition may control both Chambers of Congress Source: El Economista With respect to presidential polls, there has been only one new poll after the second debate from Reforma newspaper. In their most recent poll, recurrent collaborator of the Mexico Institute’s “Expert Take” podcast and Reforma’s head pollster, Lorena Becerra, found that AMLO’s lead increased after the debate at the expense of PAN presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya. In that poll, AMLO has a 2-to-1 advantage over Anaya 31 days away from election day. According to the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx AMLO has a 46% of voting intentions, for 30% from Anaya and 21% of Meade. Its predictive model gives López Obrador a probability of 92% of winning. Figure 2. Poll of Polls (up to May 30th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s margin remains strong 40 days away from election Source: Oraculus.mx
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By Miguel Toro On May 20, 2018, the four Mexican presidential candidates held their second of three debates scheduled for this campaign process. This was an unusual week prior to the debate as Margarita Zavala withdrew her independent candidacy to the presidency on Wednesday, May 16. During a televised debate, Zavala announced she was dropping out of the race, understanding that Mexico was facing a very tough decision this election and this way liberating her supporters to choose whichever option they deemed worthy. She indicated that she would start a civic movement the day after the election to try and recuperate the democratic values that have been lost in Mexican politics. It must be noted that it is difficult for any independent candidate to win the presidential election in Mexico, because from the start, they face an uphill battle in leveling the playing field in terms of campaign resources and party structure. These are some of the reasons she left the race. The main question that comes out of this situation is who will benefit from Margarita Zavala’s voters? The following weeks will reveal this situation as well as incorporate people’s opinions after the second debate. As for the debate, it is important to note that this was the first time in history that the National Electoral Institute organized a town-hall format for a debate. It addressed the topics of migration, border security, trade, and the role of Mexico in the world. The four candidates primarily focused on the relationship between Mexico and the United States and how this affects our policies on various issues. However, it was disappointing to hear that it seems that, in the world, there is only one other country and our entire foreign policy resorts to dealing with President Trump. There was very little said about Central America and nothing on Latin America or the rest of the world except for a very brief mention of the renewed free trade agreement with the European Union. In terms of quality, this debate was an important step back compared to the previous debate, as even though the audience’s questions were good and the moderators were incisive, the four candidates resorted more to platitudes and avoided going in depth on their proposals. There is this feeling that Mexican politicians have disdain towards foreign policy, as they traditionally believe the notion that the best foreign policy is domestic policy. Nevertheless, they suggested some interesting policies, which are listed below: Trade
Border Security
Migration
With respect to polls, there was only one new poll before the second debate from pollster Ipsos-Bimsa. The trends remain the same, and López Obrador continues to have a large margin. According to the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx AMLO has a 44% of voting intentions, compared to 29% for Anaya and 20% for Meade. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of May 23, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
By Miguel Toro The second month of the campaign began with a period of confrontation between front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador and some of Mexico’s most powerful business chambers. During an event with the radio and television chambers (CIRT), AMLO suggested that five of the wealthiest businessmen had been attempting to convince PAN candidate Ricardo Anaya to join, with the government, a secret alliance to defeat him. Both the government and the mentioned businessmen denied this happening and the latter paid for an ad printed in multiple newspapers titled “Not Like This,” where the Mexican Business Council (Consejo Mexicano de Negocios) –a group of the most powerful business leaders in Mexico –complained that AMLO was unfoundedly attacking them. They indicated that it was concerning that the Morena party’s presidential candidate vilifies those who think differently than him. Obviously, this received a response from López Obrador and some of his advisors who said that those businessmen did not represent the entire business community. He also said that the businessmen were attacking him because they were afraid of losing their illegal privileges that allow them to behave like oligopolies and have excessively concentrated markets where their firms were dominant. By the end of the week, the confrontation had somewhat subsided, but the most powerful business leaders seem increasingly distant from the left-wing party’s candidate. On another front, the incumbent party PRI candidate José Antonio Meade held an event in which he intended to relaunch his campaign. Sitting in third place in all polls, the former secretary of finance has had trouble connecting with voters. Thus, with the substitution of the party president, René Juárez, for Enrique Ochoa, came an attempt to spark enthusiasm among PRI supporters and double efforts to rally the vote. With the release of a book he wrote and his appearance on two television debate programs, he wanted to explain his proposals. Nevertheless, he used significant amounts of time on those shows to attack AMLO instead. The other three candidates participated in multiple campaign rallies but did not have significant events. For example, Ricardo Anaya campaigned with several of the Frente candidates for governorships. To some pollsters, it is surprising that after his successful first debate, it seems that Anaya’s campaign has wasted the opportunity to further boost his candidacy. With respect to polls, the first surveys after the debate have been released and Anaya has closed the gap slightly with AMLO. On the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx, AMLO has a 45% of voting intentions, Anaya has 31%, and Meade has 18%. Table 1. Summary of Polls Released in 4th Week of Campaigns Source: Own elaboration with data from the different surveys. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of May 10, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
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December 2018
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