Last Sunday was Mexico’s biggest election in history. More than 3 thousand 416 positions were up for grabs, ranging from President of Mexico to thousands of local officials. Left-wing Morena is the big winner of this year as third time was the charm: former Mexico City mayor and party founder, Andrés Manuel López Obrador finally won the presidency and did so in a landslide. But his momentum carried on towards the other elections as his coalition obtained around 62% of the Chamber of Deputies and 53% of the Senate and 5 of the 9 gubernatorial races, including Mexico City, that were up for grabs this day. They exceeded every expectation of their performance and combined with the defeat of the other parties, represents the most significant political realignment in Mexico since 1988. Mexican presidential results (according to the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP)) Third time was the charm for AMLO Source: National Electoral Institute While Morena was the main victor of this election, the center PRI was the great loser. They lost at least the 3 governorships they controlled that were up for election this year, were reduced from being the biggest party in Congress to the fourth with historically low number of seats and they also lost the presidency. No matter what their candidate, José Antonio Meade, attempted, his candidacy never took off. Maimed by the toxicity of president Peña Nieto and the PRI brand, Meade could not overcome the Morena challenge and showcased the PRI’s worst lost in history. Chamber of Deputies results (according to the PREP) The Morena coalition (Morena + PT + ES) is very close to supermajority Source: Own elaboration with data from the National Electoral Institute Senate results (according to the PREP) AMLO's coalition (Morena + PT + ES) also controls the Senate Source: Own elaboration with data from the National Electoral Institute The other loser from Sunday's election is the Frente coalition. As you may recall, this coalition was built by right-wing PAN and left-wing PRD and Citizens’ Movement Party. It must be noted that the performance of each of these 3 parties is different. While Citizens’ Movement party undoubtedly won by obtaining its first governorship in the state of Jalisco with Enrique Alfaro, the PAN could barely hold on to the states they controlled that were up for election and could never oppose AMLO in the presidential race, and the PRD is but a shadow of what it was before when powerful figures like Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas or López Obrador lead them. The PRD lost 3 of its governorships to Morena (including Mexico City) and got reduced to a small party in Congress. Governorships by party (starting Sept. 1st, 2018) AMLO will be the president with less governor support Source: Own elaboration with data from the National Electoral Institute Even though Morena was the big winner of the night with the presidency, the majority in Congress, 5 out of 9 governorship races available and holds a majority in 19 out of the 32 states legislatures, AMLO will still face important opposition, particularly through the state governors where his party will control only 5 of the 32 states, making him the President with less governor support in history. The PRI and the PAN will hold each 12 states, while Citizens’ Movement holds Jalisco, Jaime Rodriguez “The Bronco” governs Nuevo Leon and the PRD still holds Michoacán, although technically its governor, Silvano Aureoles, is going to be expelled from the PRD because he supported PRI candidate José Antonio Meade during the election process. However, it will be interesting the dynamics many of these governors will face now that 19 state legislatures have Morena majority opening up the door for within-state opposition, something that had been mostly absent from the Mexican democracy since divided government started appearing in the early 90s.
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December 2018
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