by Miguel Toro The second week of the presidential campaign was marked by the controversial decision from the Electoral Tribunal to allow Nuevo León governor Jaime Rodríguez, or “El Bronco,” to run in the presidential race. He had previously been disqualified by the National Electoral Institute after he had not reached the minimum signature threshold required to be registered as an independent candidate.[1] In March of this year, both “El Bronco” and Senator Armando Ríos Piter were disqualified from the presidential race because although they had supposedly gathered more than the 866,000 signatures needed, a substantial amount of them were invalid or fake signatures. However, in a divided vote –four versus three– the judges (magistrados) of the Electoral Tribunal indicated that there was insufficient time for “El Bronco” and his team to go over all of the signatures that had been invalidated by the INE, thus violating his electoral rights. The INE then denounced El Bronco’s candidacy in the Special Electoral Crimes Prosecutors’ Office (Fiscalía Especial para Delitos Electorales or FEPADE in Spanish) for diverse irregularities in the collection of the signatures. The investigation is ongoing and will take time to solve, but despite the social media backlash and the now public confrontation between both electoral institutions, “El Bronco” has been allowed into the race, which, for many, puts into question the institutions’ capacity to properly conduct this election. Reading between the lines, to many political pundits and analysts, allowing “El Bronco” into the race favors the PRI, as the rancher-like bravado from the Nuevo León governor and his outsider status could take away some votes from López Obrador, especially in Mexico’s northern states. However, until there are new polls that include El Bronco, this hypothesis cannot be tested. With respect to the other candidates, all attended meetings with the American Chamber of Commerce on Monday. Relevant remarks by the candidates included the following: Margarita Zavala
During this week there were no polls released, therefore AMLO continues to be the front-runner with an average of 43 percent in effective voting intentions compared to 29 percent for Ricardo Anaya, 23 percent for José Antonio Meade, and 6 percent for Margarita Zavala. There is still no new data for Jaime Rodriguez “El Bronco.” Therefore, Oraculus.mx’s model based on their poll of polls continues to give AMLO a 92 percent chance of winning. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 15, 2018 Source: Oraculus.mx [1] Frequent podcast contributor Carlos Bravo Regidor anticipated that this would happen on Episode 17 of the Expert Take.
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Manuel Franco
4/26/2023 02:06:20 am
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