by Miguel Toro The first week of the presidential campaign was marked by a rare moment of unity among all the candidates. Everyone denounced President Trump’s intention to send the U.S. National Guard to the U.S.-Mexico border as a way of protecting against illegal immigration. The misunderstanding of the meaning of the “migrant caravan” –a symbolic protest of the tremendous sufferings these migrants face in their homelands and abroad –made President Trump lash out against Mexico, threatening to eliminate “Mexico’s cash cow NAFTA” if the country would not do more to stop illegal immigration into the United States. This unified all politicians as the Mexican Senate recommended that the President stop cooperating on any security program or policy with the United States government until President Trump offered an apology and respected Mexico. President Enrique Peña Nieto offered his harshest comments towards President Trump, saying that if he was frustrated with internal politics and how the U.S. Congress was not supporting his initiatives, then he should direct his actions toward them and not on Mexico and its people. During his speech, President Peña quoted every single presidential candidate, all of whom issued statements against the rhetoric and directive of President Trump. Returning to the campaign trail, as expected, every candidate decided to start in different places and emphasized distinct messages. Front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador started in the border city of Ciudad Juárez (a historical place where his idol, 19th century president Benito Juárez, upheld the Mexican government during the French invasion) and visited several cities in the north of the country (Matamoros, Tamaulipas; Piedras Negras, Coahuila). He promised that Mexicans would be able to work where they were born as the country would produce everything it eats (agricultural autarky) and offer scholarships and apprentice-like positions for the so-called ‘ninis’ (a term that describes the youth that neither study nor work). Meanwhile, Ricardo Anaya campaigned in the central part of Mexico (Jalisco; Guanajuato; Puebla; Veracruz) after kicking things off in the upscale Santa Fe neighborhood in Mexico City. He made numerous campaign promises (he says he will have a new proposal each day). Among the items he promised was the idea that he would cut the value-added tax on the border cities in half in order to be more competitive against the sale tax rates on the U.S. side. Additionally, he promised that women would have better wages and equal opportunities, including making a focus of his government to stop violence against women. He also indicated that he would recreate the Citizen Security Ministry (the Public Security Ministry was incorporated into the Ministry of the Interior by President Peña) to better fight organized crime in conjunction with furthering the civil society organizations that fight corruption. José Antonio Meade began his campaign in Yucatan promising to solve various issues the state faces (i.e. more full-time schools to help mothers work longer shifts; health and hydraulic infrastructure) as part of his program “Advancing with You,” which stresses the idea of creating a government adequate to each person’s needs. However, as he campaigned in other states, he also focused his narrative on combatting corruption. With this in mind, he finally presented (he was the final candidate to present the three declarations of personal wealth that the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, IMCO, created) an extensive version of his wealth and resources declarations, urging his rivals to present this extended version. Margarita Zavala’s campaign started at the Angel de la Independencia monument in Mexico City. From there, she campaigned in Guerrero, Morelos, and the State of Mexico, where the people have been greatly affected by violence as security policies were the focus of the first week of her campaign. She has been more specific than most candidates regarding security policies as she proposed doubling the size of the federal police, investing in new surveillance technology, reforming the judicial system, prioritizing the combat of femicides and missing people, and a jail-modernizing program. She also incorporated into her security advisors former intelligence agency member Alejandro Hope (who you can hear in our Expert Take podcast analyzing security policies). Several polls were released coinciding with the first week of the campaigns. The following table sums up their numbers: Table 1. Summary of Polls Released in 1st Week of Campaigns Using Oraculus.mx’s model based on their poll of polls, AMLO has a 92% chance of winning. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 9, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
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Manuel Franco
4/26/2023 02:06:40 am
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