In the third week of July, Dr. Alejandro Moreno (El Financiero’s pollster) wrote a very interesting article about the characteristics of the average MORENA voter. People who identify with MORENA are more likely to identify as male than female and tend to be younger, better educated, more unsatisfied with the government, and have more positive opinions of the party's founder, president, and leading presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), than the average Mexican. Additionally, they believe in policies traditionally associated with more “farther-away-from-the-center” leftist parties. Furthermore, MORENA voters are the group who most distrusts the country's electoral system.
Paraphrasing the article, these are a few of the numbers that the most recent El Financiero survey revealed about potential MORENA voters:
The description of the average MORENA voter presents various interesting scenarios for this party and its candidate, AMLO, for the next presidential election. First of all, as the majority of MORENA supporters are men, it is important for the party to mobilize female voters as there are more women in Mexico than men. This may be especially relevant if the only woman among the potential candidates, Margarita Zavala, becomes the PAN's candidate. Second of all, as most voters in Mexico are young (at least younger than the national voter average of 43 years old), MORENA may be able to cash in on the fact that most MORENA supporters are younger than other parties' supporters. This implies that they need to push for policies that seem attractive to a younger audience, rather than their traditional policies, such as the socially conservative policies that have been a signature of AMLO's proposals. For example, AMLO has said that his government would hold a national referendum to determine if minority groups should have equal rights with respect to issues such as same-sex marriage or adoption. This seems completely counter-intuitive, as most MORENA supporters are located in the center of the country (Mexico City and nearby states), and Mexico City's young voters are the most socially liberal in the country. It seems unwise for AMLO not to take a more liberal stance on these types of issues.
Finally, another element to take into account is that MORENA supporters are the group of voters that most distrusts the government and the Mexican electoral system. This could be troublesome for the fragile Mexican democracy as the main narrative pushed by AMLO and many of MORENA's candidates (i.e. Delfina Gómez in the 2017 State of Mexico elections) is that electoral fraud exists and that the incumbent parties are cheating to win elections. AMLO and his fellow party members (since his time in the PRD) have not been able to demonstrate in court that this has been the case; nevertheless, with the ample corruption in Mexican politics--and the excessive amounts of dark resources spent on elections--it is not unreasonable to believe that collusion between the government and the electoral courts is possible. At least 66 percent of MORENA supporters and 57 percent of PRD supporters believe this. In a country very divided among party and income lines, an AMLO defeat could produce turbulent times; something that neither the Mexican democracy or economy needs.