by Miguel Toro Election day is in 3 days and today was the last day of the campaigns. From now on, public events are prohibited for all the candidates running for office in this election and all the last election polls are in. Based on that information, left-wing Morena is poised to be the great winner this Sunday. Not only is its presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador a front-runner with a comfortable lead (a 22 percentage point lead in effective vote in the average of the Oraculus.mx “poll of polls” which takes undecided and non-responsive voters out of the sample of each survey) against his closest competition Frente coalition (right-wing PAN, left-wing PRD and Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate, Ricardo Anaya, but it is likely they’ll win 5 out of the 9 governor races this year and be the biggest party in both Chambers of Congress. According to recent polls Berumen, Reforma and El Financiero newspapers, and Consulta Mitofsky, left-wing Morena will definitely win the gubernatorial races of Chiapas, Tabasco, Morelos and crown jewel of Mexico City and may have a real shot in both Puebla and Veracruz. Furthermore, it is estimated the Lopez Obrador’s coalition (left-wing Morena, Maoist-almost-communist Labor Party and Evangelical Social Encounter Party) will have a majority of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and be in the high 40 percents in the Senate. Meanwhile, the right-wing PAN will probably remain the second strongest political force in the country with around 20% in both chambers of Congress and around 12 governorships (out of 32), while the incumbent party, the PRI, will probably face a historic defeat in which it will be reduced to around 15% of both chambers of Congress and have around 13 governorships, the least it has controlled in history. Figure 1 shows the final “poll of polls” data for the presidential race. With this data, Oraculus.mx indicates that AMLO has a higher than 99% of winning the presidency this Sunday. Figure 1. Final 'Poll of Polls' (up to June 27th, 2018) Lopez Obrador is poised to win the presidency Source: Oraculus.mx The results of this weekend's election may prove to be a paradigm shift in Mexico's political spectrum, but beyond the compelling evidence presented in the multiple election surveys, there is still the sensation that election fraud is possible in the country. Mexico's extensive vote buying and clientelism will be on display this Sunday as all the political parties blur the lines between getting-the-vote-out activities and illegally buying them. Yesterday Tuesday June 26th, two people were arrested in Mexico City that were transporting 20 million pesos in cash (around 1 million US dollars) towards the PRI's headquarters. Furthermore, PRI supporters and members are really confident they will win the Presidential election. It may seem unreasonable boasts of confidence that they have to show in order to not disheartened their supporters, but it may also signal an extensive clientelistic operation for which the PRI has been known for throughout history. It must be noted that not only the PRI incurs in these types of activities, but all parties that control different governments at the state and local level. So even if vote buying is not sufficient to overcome such a big difference in the presidential race, it may be a decisive factor in very contested elections such as the Puebla, Veracruz and Yucatan governor races.
On Monday we'll know what proved to be more important in voters' minds.
859 Comments
by Miguel Toro Two weeks away from election day, the race has entered a period of scattered attention from Mexican voters. After the final debate last Tuesday June 12th, most people are talking about the soccer World Cup –especially after Mexico’s astonishing victory over favorites-to-win and defending champions Germany. So despite having tons of political ads during the games, they will most likely have a reduced effect as the election is not perceived to be contested. As of today, left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ahead of the polls with 49% of effective voting intentions in Oraculus.mx’s “poll of polls”. This represents a 21 percentage point lead over runner-up Frente (PAN + PRD + Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate Ricardo Anaya and 29 percentage point advantage over incumbent party PRI candidate José Antonio Meade. AMLO sits comfortably at the lead with a 94% probability of winning the presidency. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (up to June 18th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s continues to grow 2 week away from election day Source: Oraculus.mx But the main thing that happened last week was the third and final debate where the presidential candidates discussed about their economic platforms through segments that involved education, health, poverty alleviation and sustainable development policies. It was a typical Mexican debate in which there were more attacks between the candidates than actual detailed proposals, but in general it seemed that José Antonio Meade showed more expertise answering the questions and explaining how he would implement solutions, while front-runner AMLO responded saying that corruption was the root of all of the problems and by solving it (through his mere presence in power) his policies would actually have an impact on Mexican wellness. Meanwhile, Ricardo Anaya had to counterattack the accusations made by government and PRI officials that he is corrupt after the leaked video framing him. If you want to hear a much greater explanation of the debate, you can listen to our latest episode of the “Expert Take” podcast where a panel of experts dives into each topic. The other interesting element that occurred during last week was the big survey from Berumen that was paid by the Mexican Republic Patron Confederation (COPARMEX). This was a massive survey of more than 13 thousand interviews that analyzed each of the main races in this election process. Their results confirmed the standings and overall margins for the presidential race, while also giving further detail into the Congressional elections and the 9 governorship races. With respect to the Congressional races, in the Chamber of Deputies they show that left-wing Morena is headed to be the biggest party with over 40% of the seats. In conjunction with the Labor Party (PT) and the Evangelical Social Encounter Party (PES) which conform AMLO’s coalition, they are set to hold a majority in Congress. Meanwhile in a distant second place will be the right-wing PAN and further down the incumbent party PRI. The complete distribution of lower house seats can be seen in Figure 2. In the Senate, Morena is also poised to be the biggest party being very close to holding on its own majority. As with the Chamber of Deputies, PAN and PRI are distant second and third places. Figure 2. Chamber of Deputies seats by party Lopez Obrador’s coalition has a good chance of having majority Source: Own elaboration with data from the Coparmex sponsored survey Figure 3. Senate seats by party[1] Lopez Obrador will only need a couple of seats to secure a majority Source: Own elaboration with data from the Coparmex sponsored survey With respect to the governor races, 6 out of the 9 elections will be won with ample margins, while there are 3 contested elections. Morena party will win the governorships of Chiapas, Mexico City, Morelos and Tabasco, while the PAN will win continue its almost 30 year government in the state of Guanajuato and Citizen’s Movement party will win the state of Jalisco (whose capital is Guadalajara, second most populated city in Mexico). The races in Puebla, Veracruz and Yucatan are still a toss-up where Morena is trying to edge out the PAN in Puebla and Veracruz and the PRI has the lead in Yucatan followed closely by both PAN and Morena. But regardless of how these races turn out, it can be expected that the great winner of this election will be AMLO who is receiving a substantial amount of votes for his party in the most important races. [1] The numbers on the Congressional races have raised some eyebrows as they seem to be undercutting some of the small party’s percentages. For example, it seems that Citizen’s Movement party (Movimiento Ciudadano) will most likely have at least the 2 majority rule senators from the state of Jalisco as their governor candidate, Enrique Alfaro, will most likely win the election with ease (as their own survey shows). Based on the fact that Mexicans tend to not divide up their votes, if MC controls the Jalisco governorship, it will most likely also have their 2 senators.
20 days away from election day this race seems decided. Confirming last week’s Reforma and El Financiero newspaper polls, two new polls from Ulises Beltrán and Varela y Asociados were released. The first one has left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador ahead of the polls with 47% of effective voting intentions. This represents a 18 percentage point lead over runner-up Frente (PAN + PRD + Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate Ricardo Anaya (José Antonio Meade has 21% in that poll). The second poll has AMLO with a 51% of effective voting intentions, 21 percentage points ahead of Ricardo Anaya and 33 percentage points ahead of José Antonio Meade. Incorporating these numbers, in the Oraculus.mx “poll of polls”, AMLO sits at an average of 50% by 27% of Anaya and 23% of Meade. This gives López Obrador a 94% probability of winning the presidency. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (up to June 11th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s margin is bigger than ever 20 days away from election Source: Oraculus.mx But even if the first place is almost set in stone a video that surfaced online could alter the voting intentions of the second and third places. Late Thursday June 7th, a video leaked on the internet where a man who is supposedly Juan Barreiro is being asked by a woman with an Argentine accent about business that relates to Frente candidate Ricardo Anaya. Juan Barreiro is Manuel Barreiro’s brother, who was accused of having done dirty business with Ricardo Anaya when the latter was Chief of Staff of the Queretaro governor a decade ago. Earlier this year, the Federal Government used the State’s justice institutions to try and frame Ricardo Anaya of money laundering and embezzlement accusing him of becoming rich through the sale of lands that greatly multiplied their value after the Queretaro government invested in infrastructure nearby. These accusations have not been proven and even the Electoral Tribunal ruled that the Federal Government was interfering in the election with these maneuvers. Nevertheless, the government was never attempting to win a legal battle with Ricardo Anaya, but rather their clash was in the stage of public opinion. To many people, this at least bares the question as to the origin of Ricardo Anaya’s resources. The video leaked last Thursday has the man who is supposed to be Juan Barreiro speaking that that kind of resources have been directed towards the Frente’s campaign.
Is this true? We may never know, but it was the potential of putting the last nail in the coffin of Ricardo Anaya’s campaign and preventing him from having any opportunity to reach AMLO. Will this benefit the PRI candidate José Antonio Meade? Not necessarily, because if the campaign has proven something it is that this election runs around an anti-PRI sentiment so it would not be surprising if AMLO actually benefits from potential lost voters from Anaya that would prefer him rather than the PRI. Another topic that does not directly concern the presidential campaign but was discussed last week is the fact that there have been 112 assassinated candidates in this election process. People that were running for all sorts of local positions (from mayors to members of the federal congress among others) have been killed showing the complete fragility of Mexico’s justice institutions. In some places of the country, the Rule of Law is inexistent and the impunity with which these murders are happening, signals bad times for democracy in Mexico. If people running for office are killed and nothing happens, it creates very perverse incentives for the kind of people that can run. It would seem that only people linked to criminal activities may run for many positions in a tragic institutional capture by organized crime groups. This is not the first –nor will it be the last –time that candidates in Mexico are killed during the election process, but the sheer number this year should raise concerns about the health of the country’s democracy. by Miguel Toro Entering the last month of the campaign, the election seems as decided as ever. A new poll released today by Alejandro Moreno on El Financiero newspaper continued the trend of pollsters over the last week that have found front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) reaching 50% (or more) on effective preferences in surveys. These polls come on the heels of the backlash that several prominent businessmen received after trying to persuade employees through internal memos from not voting for AMLO arguing that his economic policies could translate to them losing their jobs. In the three main polls released in the last week, AMLO has increased around 4 percentage points while PAN-PRD (Frente) coalition candidate Ricardo Anaya has lost around the same quantity. During last week, news media outlets got hold of some of the internal memos that were sent to employees of firms controlled by businessmen like Alberto Bailleres (Grupo Peñoles) and Germán Larrea (Grupo México). Bailleres and Larrea are the second and third richest men in Mexico as their conglomerates control a variety of firms such as the Peñoles mines or the Palacio de Hierro department store in the case of the former, and the freight railway firm Ferromex or the Cinemex movie theatre chain for the latter. These two men were part of the original group of 5 businessmen that AMLO accused in late April of conspiring with the government to try and push a second place candidate like Ricardo Anaya to a more competitive spot in the election. All of these men denied the accusations (as well as the government who said they would never support such an idea and even less as it was not their own candidate José Antonio Meade), but in the public image, it doesn’t matter if they were originally negotiating some form of agreement, as to AMLO voters they are part of those “mobs in power” (mafia del poder) that are the reason why Mexico has many problems. In this simplified version of one of the driving narratives of the AMLO campaign, it is easy to see how the memos sent to their employees were heavily criticized as being a desperate attempt at reducing the deficit between AMLO and Anaya as they fear ‘losing their privileges’ instead of a genuine worry about the economic policies furthered by the leading candidate. It is important to note, that to many Mexicans the powerful business tycoons of the country like Bailleres and Larrea are seen as rent-seekers, who benefit from the crony capitalism that their ties to the government allows, instead of being innovative and responsible businessmen that care for the wellbeing of their employees. With respect to the El Financiero poll, AMLO’s advantage over Ricardo Anaya grew to 26 percentage points (50% for AMLO by 24% for Anaya), with incumbent party PRI candidate José Antonio Meade in close third place with 22%. According to the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx AMLO has a 48% of voting intentions, for 29% from Anaya and 21% of Meade. Its predictive model gives López Obrador a probability of 94% of winning. Figure 1. Poll of polls (up to June 4th, 2018) Lopez Obrador's margin is bigger than ever one month away from election Source: Oraculus.mx
|
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. Archives
December 2018
Categories |