In the first week of September, President Elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador, met with business chambers in the state of Nuevo León, a group of governors and appointed several new officials.
On Monday September 3rd, 2018 he announced that former Electoral Crimes Prosecutor Santiago Nieto would become the next head of the Financial Intelligence Unit at the Finance Secretary. This unit is in charge of investigating tax evasion and related crimes. Mr. Nieto received ample support from civil society organizations a year ago when he was strangely fired from his office (within the Attorney General’s Office) because he was investigating electoral crimes related to the Odebrecht scandal, where Brazilian firm supposedly bribed then Pemex head Emilio Lozoya to gain favors in the Peña Nieto administration. Then, the President Elect announced the three Undersecretaries for the Secretary of the Economy (the Mexican equivalent to the Department of Commerce). First, trade expert Luz María de la Mora was appointed Undersecretary of Foreign Trade, while Mr. Francisco Quiroga will be in charge of the Undersecretary of Mining and Mr. Ernesto Acevedo will be the new Undersecretary of Industry and Commerce. By midweek, AMLO traveled north to the border state of Nuevo León where he met with former presidential candidate, Governor Jaime Rodríguez ‘The Bronco’ and business chambers from that state to discuss how he plans to redirect resources towards investment projects (mainly infrastructure) and not to current expenses. He also met with the federal deputies from the Morena party (that control slightly over 50% of the Lower Chamber) to outline his policy priorities for the upcoming legislative period. Afterwards, he met with business chambers from the southern states of the country to discuss how he plans to highly invest in oil exploration infrastructure for Pemex to ‘rescue’ the energy sector from its current state. On Friday September 7th, the office of the President Elect informed that a young political scientist, Carlos Martínez, would become the head of the National Institute for Worker’s Housing, the biggest real-estate player in the country. It must be noted that the President Elect had previously informed that Juan Carlos Zentella was going to hold this position but his office gave no reason for the change. By the weekend, AMLO held a meeting with the governors (and some governor-elect) of the southeastern states of the country (Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatán) to discuss his plans of creating the ‘Maya train’ –that will cross the entire Yucatán peninsula attempting to bring tourism from Cancun and the Mayan Riviera to other nearby states.
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by Miguel Toro The President Elect's transition period has been like no other before in recent history. Since the days of President Carlos Salinas and then President Elect Ernesto Zedillo in the mid 90s, no winning government had had as much support in the polls -for the Executive and Legislative branches -than this one. The very strong position that President Elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador obtained in Congress (where he has majority on both chambers) gave him great leverage to further his agenda since day 1 of the transition period. Instead of waiting for the newly government to be installed in December 1st, he started operating as if he already was in office. Since the first week, AMLO started nominating the different people that would become Mexico's new Undersecretaries and high-level officials. It must be noted, that the great majority of his Cabinet members had been announced since the beginning of his precampaign in December of last year, except for a newly appointed Foreign Relations Secretary, where former Mayor of Mexico City and AMLO’s successor, Marcelo Ebrard got appointed. For a full list of AMLO’s cabinet (updated weekly with the new appointees) you can click here. To inform of his designations for these positions, AMLO would hold a press conference on the street, at the steps of what was his campaign headquarters, instructing these new officials about policy issues he wanted addressed right away. In some occasions this involved taking matters to Congress, lobbying for things that would be actually discussed in the chambers until the new Congressmen and Congresswomen took office on Spetember 1st, while at other times, it involved setting up events that looked like official government events. One of these was the debate tables set up with local officials regarding the security situation throughout the country. The combination of these things completely took away the media and the people's attention to still President Enrique Peña. Outside of the continuing NAFTA negotiations, the current government became utterly irrelevant. Since his days as Mayor of Mexico City - where he would hold a press conference at 6 am explaining things he would do or wanted addressed -AMLO has been a master at controlling the media's coverage and the political agenda. Now as President Elect, he has repeated this process (albeit with 2 pm press conferences) and with it pushed policy decisions for which he is legally not able to do. For example, after a very dubious study on the ability of the Santa Lucia military airbase to become Mexico City's second airport, he decided he would honor one of his campaign promises and hold out a national referendum asking whether the construction of the new Mexico City airport should continue[1] or be changed to keeping the old one and creating a second one in Santa Lucia (with around a 100 billion peso loss for the government due to already having around 30% of the new airport being built in Texcoco). Not only he has no authority to hold this referendum[2], he said it will be held on October 28th, 35 days before he actually takes office. This casts many doubts in the validity of this referendum and also questions what kind of bias can be introduced in the process when he will decide the people organizing the entire survey. In a similar matter, since mid July, the President Elect ordered his future Cabinet members to organize concurrently with local-level officials a series of public debate tables regarding the insecurity of the country. The objective is to explore ideas of specific policies to be implemented in each place to try and improve the security situation of those people. The first of these of events garnered important media attention –mainly because he attended the first one in the border city of Ciudad Juárez –but then got shadowed by all of the other activities the President Elect is doing. An area where Mr. López Obrador’s transition team has paid great attention in these months has been foreign relations. Not only did AMLO’s designated Chief Negotiatior, Jesús Seade, participate in the NAFTA renegotiation talks with the Mexican team, but also Mexico’s next Foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard has been very active linking the next President with other governments. For example, they received a big delegation from the United States that came to visit them that included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen, Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Then, AMLO exchanged letters with President Trump indicating his stance on different policy issues and how they could work together in the future. Furthermore, he also received Canada’s Foreign Minister and NAFTA Chief Negotiator Chrystina Freeland as well as Guatemala President Jimmy Morales in meetings in the following weeks. In October, Marcelo Ebrard will visit Japan to meet up with the CEOs of various Japanese firms and explain them some incentives AMLO’s government will offer to counteract some of the worse economic conditions for investment in Mexico created by the new NAFTA deal negotiated with Trump’s administration. In the NAFTA front, as was mentioned above, Jesús Seade was inside the negotiation rooms with the Mexican team transmitting the future government’s position on the multiple issues, in particular in the energy sector where AMLO has been traditionally opposed to market liberalization and investment from private firms. According to the Wall Street Journal, AMLO was not very happy with the inclusion of the energy chapter in the NAFTA renegotiation, but the U.S. was very firm in its interest in that chapter, and from what has been revealed of the U.S. – Mexico deal agreed last August 27th, the energy chapter stayed as it had been negotiated by the current Mexico government. Additionally, Marcelo Ebrard announced they saw they agreement as a positive step to reducing economic uncertainty in Mexico due to the renegotiation process as well as a good sign regarding Mexican worker salaries and trilateral dispute settlements. After the deal had been announced, Ebrard also met with the ambassadors of around 20 countries who are Mexican trade partners (mainly from the Asia-Pacific region) telling them that Mexico wants to deepen trade relations with them as a way of diversifying investment risk due to the U.S. government. Finally, with the beginning of the new Congress this September the 1st, it is expected that the budget negotiations clearly indicate AMLO’s policy preferences and agenda as he has sufficient votes to approve the budget without any negotiation with opposition parties. It is still unclear how many of the different changes he wants to implement will be pushed through Congress this quarter, but it may show how they will interact with the opposition parties regarding funding for States with non-Morena party governors. [1] Since 2014 there is a huge new airport being constructed outside of the city in the municipality of Texcoco that has been criticized by AMLO and his supporters for being full of fraudulent and corrupt contracts with government-preferred construction firms
[2] Binding national referendums have to be ordered by Congress but more importantly they must be organized by the National Electoral Institute concurrent with Federal-level elections. Last Sunday was Mexico’s biggest election in history. More than 3 thousand 416 positions were up for grabs, ranging from President of Mexico to thousands of local officials. Left-wing Morena is the big winner of this year as third time was the charm: former Mexico City mayor and party founder, Andrés Manuel López Obrador finally won the presidency and did so in a landslide. But his momentum carried on towards the other elections as his coalition obtained around 62% of the Chamber of Deputies and 53% of the Senate and 5 of the 9 gubernatorial races, including Mexico City, that were up for grabs this day. They exceeded every expectation of their performance and combined with the defeat of the other parties, represents the most significant political realignment in Mexico since 1988. Mexican presidential results (according to the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP)) Third time was the charm for AMLO Source: National Electoral Institute While Morena was the main victor of this election, the center PRI was the great loser. They lost at least the 3 governorships they controlled that were up for election this year, were reduced from being the biggest party in Congress to the fourth with historically low number of seats and they also lost the presidency. No matter what their candidate, José Antonio Meade, attempted, his candidacy never took off. Maimed by the toxicity of president Peña Nieto and the PRI brand, Meade could not overcome the Morena challenge and showcased the PRI’s worst lost in history. Chamber of Deputies results (according to the PREP) The Morena coalition (Morena + PT + ES) is very close to supermajority Source: Own elaboration with data from the National Electoral Institute Senate results (according to the PREP) AMLO's coalition (Morena + PT + ES) also controls the Senate Source: Own elaboration with data from the National Electoral Institute The other loser from Sunday's election is the Frente coalition. As you may recall, this coalition was built by right-wing PAN and left-wing PRD and Citizens’ Movement Party. It must be noted that the performance of each of these 3 parties is different. While Citizens’ Movement party undoubtedly won by obtaining its first governorship in the state of Jalisco with Enrique Alfaro, the PAN could barely hold on to the states they controlled that were up for election and could never oppose AMLO in the presidential race, and the PRD is but a shadow of what it was before when powerful figures like Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas or López Obrador lead them. The PRD lost 3 of its governorships to Morena (including Mexico City) and got reduced to a small party in Congress. Governorships by party (starting Sept. 1st, 2018) AMLO will be the president with less governor support Source: Own elaboration with data from the National Electoral Institute Even though Morena was the big winner of the night with the presidency, the majority in Congress, 5 out of 9 governorship races available and holds a majority in 19 out of the 32 states legislatures, AMLO will still face important opposition, particularly through the state governors where his party will control only 5 of the 32 states, making him the President with less governor support in history. The PRI and the PAN will hold each 12 states, while Citizens’ Movement holds Jalisco, Jaime Rodriguez “The Bronco” governs Nuevo Leon and the PRD still holds Michoacán, although technically its governor, Silvano Aureoles, is going to be expelled from the PRD because he supported PRI candidate José Antonio Meade during the election process. However, it will be interesting the dynamics many of these governors will face now that 19 state legislatures have Morena majority opening up the door for within-state opposition, something that had been mostly absent from the Mexican democracy since divided government started appearing in the early 90s.
by Miguel Toro Election day is in 3 days and today was the last day of the campaigns. From now on, public events are prohibited for all the candidates running for office in this election and all the last election polls are in. Based on that information, left-wing Morena is poised to be the great winner this Sunday. Not only is its presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador a front-runner with a comfortable lead (a 22 percentage point lead in effective vote in the average of the Oraculus.mx “poll of polls” which takes undecided and non-responsive voters out of the sample of each survey) against his closest competition Frente coalition (right-wing PAN, left-wing PRD and Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate, Ricardo Anaya, but it is likely they’ll win 5 out of the 9 governor races this year and be the biggest party in both Chambers of Congress. According to recent polls Berumen, Reforma and El Financiero newspapers, and Consulta Mitofsky, left-wing Morena will definitely win the gubernatorial races of Chiapas, Tabasco, Morelos and crown jewel of Mexico City and may have a real shot in both Puebla and Veracruz. Furthermore, it is estimated the Lopez Obrador’s coalition (left-wing Morena, Maoist-almost-communist Labor Party and Evangelical Social Encounter Party) will have a majority of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and be in the high 40 percents in the Senate. Meanwhile, the right-wing PAN will probably remain the second strongest political force in the country with around 20% in both chambers of Congress and around 12 governorships (out of 32), while the incumbent party, the PRI, will probably face a historic defeat in which it will be reduced to around 15% of both chambers of Congress and have around 13 governorships, the least it has controlled in history. Figure 1 shows the final “poll of polls” data for the presidential race. With this data, Oraculus.mx indicates that AMLO has a higher than 99% of winning the presidency this Sunday. Figure 1. Final 'Poll of Polls' (up to June 27th, 2018) Lopez Obrador is poised to win the presidency Source: Oraculus.mx The results of this weekend's election may prove to be a paradigm shift in Mexico's political spectrum, but beyond the compelling evidence presented in the multiple election surveys, there is still the sensation that election fraud is possible in the country. Mexico's extensive vote buying and clientelism will be on display this Sunday as all the political parties blur the lines between getting-the-vote-out activities and illegally buying them. Yesterday Tuesday June 26th, two people were arrested in Mexico City that were transporting 20 million pesos in cash (around 1 million US dollars) towards the PRI's headquarters. Furthermore, PRI supporters and members are really confident they will win the Presidential election. It may seem unreasonable boasts of confidence that they have to show in order to not disheartened their supporters, but it may also signal an extensive clientelistic operation for which the PRI has been known for throughout history. It must be noted that not only the PRI incurs in these types of activities, but all parties that control different governments at the state and local level. So even if vote buying is not sufficient to overcome such a big difference in the presidential race, it may be a decisive factor in very contested elections such as the Puebla, Veracruz and Yucatan governor races.
On Monday we'll know what proved to be more important in voters' minds. by Miguel Toro Two weeks away from election day, the race has entered a period of scattered attention from Mexican voters. After the final debate last Tuesday June 12th, most people are talking about the soccer World Cup –especially after Mexico’s astonishing victory over favorites-to-win and defending champions Germany. So despite having tons of political ads during the games, they will most likely have a reduced effect as the election is not perceived to be contested. As of today, left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ahead of the polls with 49% of effective voting intentions in Oraculus.mx’s “poll of polls”. This represents a 21 percentage point lead over runner-up Frente (PAN + PRD + Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate Ricardo Anaya and 29 percentage point advantage over incumbent party PRI candidate José Antonio Meade. AMLO sits comfortably at the lead with a 94% probability of winning the presidency. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (up to June 18th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s continues to grow 2 week away from election day Source: Oraculus.mx But the main thing that happened last week was the third and final debate where the presidential candidates discussed about their economic platforms through segments that involved education, health, poverty alleviation and sustainable development policies. It was a typical Mexican debate in which there were more attacks between the candidates than actual detailed proposals, but in general it seemed that José Antonio Meade showed more expertise answering the questions and explaining how he would implement solutions, while front-runner AMLO responded saying that corruption was the root of all of the problems and by solving it (through his mere presence in power) his policies would actually have an impact on Mexican wellness. Meanwhile, Ricardo Anaya had to counterattack the accusations made by government and PRI officials that he is corrupt after the leaked video framing him. If you want to hear a much greater explanation of the debate, you can listen to our latest episode of the “Expert Take” podcast where a panel of experts dives into each topic. The other interesting element that occurred during last week was the big survey from Berumen that was paid by the Mexican Republic Patron Confederation (COPARMEX). This was a massive survey of more than 13 thousand interviews that analyzed each of the main races in this election process. Their results confirmed the standings and overall margins for the presidential race, while also giving further detail into the Congressional elections and the 9 governorship races. With respect to the Congressional races, in the Chamber of Deputies they show that left-wing Morena is headed to be the biggest party with over 40% of the seats. In conjunction with the Labor Party (PT) and the Evangelical Social Encounter Party (PES) which conform AMLO’s coalition, they are set to hold a majority in Congress. Meanwhile in a distant second place will be the right-wing PAN and further down the incumbent party PRI. The complete distribution of lower house seats can be seen in Figure 2. In the Senate, Morena is also poised to be the biggest party being very close to holding on its own majority. As with the Chamber of Deputies, PAN and PRI are distant second and third places. Figure 2. Chamber of Deputies seats by party Lopez Obrador’s coalition has a good chance of having majority Source: Own elaboration with data from the Coparmex sponsored survey Figure 3. Senate seats by party[1] Lopez Obrador will only need a couple of seats to secure a majority Source: Own elaboration with data from the Coparmex sponsored survey With respect to the governor races, 6 out of the 9 elections will be won with ample margins, while there are 3 contested elections. Morena party will win the governorships of Chiapas, Mexico City, Morelos and Tabasco, while the PAN will win continue its almost 30 year government in the state of Guanajuato and Citizen’s Movement party will win the state of Jalisco (whose capital is Guadalajara, second most populated city in Mexico). The races in Puebla, Veracruz and Yucatan are still a toss-up where Morena is trying to edge out the PAN in Puebla and Veracruz and the PRI has the lead in Yucatan followed closely by both PAN and Morena. But regardless of how these races turn out, it can be expected that the great winner of this election will be AMLO who is receiving a substantial amount of votes for his party in the most important races. [1] The numbers on the Congressional races have raised some eyebrows as they seem to be undercutting some of the small party’s percentages. For example, it seems that Citizen’s Movement party (Movimiento Ciudadano) will most likely have at least the 2 majority rule senators from the state of Jalisco as their governor candidate, Enrique Alfaro, will most likely win the election with ease (as their own survey shows). Based on the fact that Mexicans tend to not divide up their votes, if MC controls the Jalisco governorship, it will most likely also have their 2 senators.
20 days away from election day this race seems decided. Confirming last week’s Reforma and El Financiero newspaper polls, two new polls from Ulises Beltrán and Varela y Asociados were released. The first one has left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador ahead of the polls with 47% of effective voting intentions. This represents a 18 percentage point lead over runner-up Frente (PAN + PRD + Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate Ricardo Anaya (José Antonio Meade has 21% in that poll). The second poll has AMLO with a 51% of effective voting intentions, 21 percentage points ahead of Ricardo Anaya and 33 percentage points ahead of José Antonio Meade. Incorporating these numbers, in the Oraculus.mx “poll of polls”, AMLO sits at an average of 50% by 27% of Anaya and 23% of Meade. This gives López Obrador a 94% probability of winning the presidency. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (up to June 11th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s margin is bigger than ever 20 days away from election Source: Oraculus.mx But even if the first place is almost set in stone a video that surfaced online could alter the voting intentions of the second and third places. Late Thursday June 7th, a video leaked on the internet where a man who is supposedly Juan Barreiro is being asked by a woman with an Argentine accent about business that relates to Frente candidate Ricardo Anaya. Juan Barreiro is Manuel Barreiro’s brother, who was accused of having done dirty business with Ricardo Anaya when the latter was Chief of Staff of the Queretaro governor a decade ago. Earlier this year, the Federal Government used the State’s justice institutions to try and frame Ricardo Anaya of money laundering and embezzlement accusing him of becoming rich through the sale of lands that greatly multiplied their value after the Queretaro government invested in infrastructure nearby. These accusations have not been proven and even the Electoral Tribunal ruled that the Federal Government was interfering in the election with these maneuvers. Nevertheless, the government was never attempting to win a legal battle with Ricardo Anaya, but rather their clash was in the stage of public opinion. To many people, this at least bares the question as to the origin of Ricardo Anaya’s resources. The video leaked last Thursday has the man who is supposed to be Juan Barreiro speaking that that kind of resources have been directed towards the Frente’s campaign.
Is this true? We may never know, but it was the potential of putting the last nail in the coffin of Ricardo Anaya’s campaign and preventing him from having any opportunity to reach AMLO. Will this benefit the PRI candidate José Antonio Meade? Not necessarily, because if the campaign has proven something it is that this election runs around an anti-PRI sentiment so it would not be surprising if AMLO actually benefits from potential lost voters from Anaya that would prefer him rather than the PRI. Another topic that does not directly concern the presidential campaign but was discussed last week is the fact that there have been 112 assassinated candidates in this election process. People that were running for all sorts of local positions (from mayors to members of the federal congress among others) have been killed showing the complete fragility of Mexico’s justice institutions. In some places of the country, the Rule of Law is inexistent and the impunity with which these murders are happening, signals bad times for democracy in Mexico. If people running for office are killed and nothing happens, it creates very perverse incentives for the kind of people that can run. It would seem that only people linked to criminal activities may run for many positions in a tragic institutional capture by organized crime groups. This is not the first –nor will it be the last –time that candidates in Mexico are killed during the election process, but the sheer number this year should raise concerns about the health of the country’s democracy. by Miguel Toro Entering the last month of the campaign, the election seems as decided as ever. A new poll released today by Alejandro Moreno on El Financiero newspaper continued the trend of pollsters over the last week that have found front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) reaching 50% (or more) on effective preferences in surveys. These polls come on the heels of the backlash that several prominent businessmen received after trying to persuade employees through internal memos from not voting for AMLO arguing that his economic policies could translate to them losing their jobs. In the three main polls released in the last week, AMLO has increased around 4 percentage points while PAN-PRD (Frente) coalition candidate Ricardo Anaya has lost around the same quantity. During last week, news media outlets got hold of some of the internal memos that were sent to employees of firms controlled by businessmen like Alberto Bailleres (Grupo Peñoles) and Germán Larrea (Grupo México). Bailleres and Larrea are the second and third richest men in Mexico as their conglomerates control a variety of firms such as the Peñoles mines or the Palacio de Hierro department store in the case of the former, and the freight railway firm Ferromex or the Cinemex movie theatre chain for the latter. These two men were part of the original group of 5 businessmen that AMLO accused in late April of conspiring with the government to try and push a second place candidate like Ricardo Anaya to a more competitive spot in the election. All of these men denied the accusations (as well as the government who said they would never support such an idea and even less as it was not their own candidate José Antonio Meade), but in the public image, it doesn’t matter if they were originally negotiating some form of agreement, as to AMLO voters they are part of those “mobs in power” (mafia del poder) that are the reason why Mexico has many problems. In this simplified version of one of the driving narratives of the AMLO campaign, it is easy to see how the memos sent to their employees were heavily criticized as being a desperate attempt at reducing the deficit between AMLO and Anaya as they fear ‘losing their privileges’ instead of a genuine worry about the economic policies furthered by the leading candidate. It is important to note, that to many Mexicans the powerful business tycoons of the country like Bailleres and Larrea are seen as rent-seekers, who benefit from the crony capitalism that their ties to the government allows, instead of being innovative and responsible businessmen that care for the wellbeing of their employees. With respect to the El Financiero poll, AMLO’s advantage over Ricardo Anaya grew to 26 percentage points (50% for AMLO by 24% for Anaya), with incumbent party PRI candidate José Antonio Meade in close third place with 22%. According to the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx AMLO has a 48% of voting intentions, for 29% from Anaya and 21% of Meade. Its predictive model gives López Obrador a probability of 94% of winning. Figure 1. Poll of polls (up to June 4th, 2018) Lopez Obrador's margin is bigger than ever one month away from election Source: Oraculus.mx
by Miguel Toro One month away from election day, the last week of May was dominated with the discussion of something that sprung from the second presidential debate: PRI’s candidate José Antonio Meade’s accusation that proposed proportional representation senator from Morena, Nestora Salgado, should not be allowed to run because she is a criminal. Meade said during the debate that front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador harbors all sorts of shady people in his party like Nestora Salgado, a Mexican woman (with an American citizenship) that was accused in court of kidnapping, killing and extorting people in a small town in the poor state of Guerrero where she was the rural-police commander. Rural-police is a rough translation as these are self-defense police-like groups formed by indigenous people in marginalized communities that have been plagued by organized crime, that in essence are paramilitary groups that in some states have been legalized (as is the case of Guerrero since 2011). Thanks to these laws, the accusations against Nestora Salgado were disregarded by three federal level judges and Mrs. Salgado was freed after being captured by the Mexican army. Now, Morena has her among the top 10 people in their proportional representation list for the Senate. Considering vote intentions for that party, it is likely she will become a Senator (with legal immunity while her term lasts) and the PRI considered using her as a way to relate AMLO with corrupt or criminally charged people. It must be noted, that the National Electoral Institute ordered the PRI to take down a TV spot where they accused Nestora and AMLO of being criminals under the claim of slandering them. The other topic heavily discussed over the last couple of days is the strength of AMLO’s campaign and the real possibility that he will control both Chambers of Congress. A Consulta Mitofsky poll released on May 24th, showed that in their estimates for both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, AMLO’s coalition is not only prone to be the biggest in Congress, but also possibly having absolute majority (50%+1 of all seats) and the PRI in their historic lows. According to the poll, AMLO’s coalition comprised of Morena, the Labour Party (PT) and the Evangelical Social Encounter Party (PES) could get up to 71 out of 128 Senators and 288 out of 500 Deputies. Meanwhile, the PRI who is currently the biggest party in Congress, would plummet to a maximum of 22 (out of 128) Senators and 62 (out of 500) Deputies. The entire estimates for Senators and Deputies can be seen in the following image property of El Economista newspaper who paid for this poll. Figure 1. Consulta Mitofsky’s Congress Poll (May 24th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s coalition may control both Chambers of Congress Source: El Economista With respect to presidential polls, there has been only one new poll after the second debate from Reforma newspaper. In their most recent poll, recurrent collaborator of the Mexico Institute’s “Expert Take” podcast and Reforma’s head pollster, Lorena Becerra, found that AMLO’s lead increased after the debate at the expense of PAN presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya. In that poll, AMLO has a 2-to-1 advantage over Anaya 31 days away from election day. According to the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx AMLO has a 46% of voting intentions, for 30% from Anaya and 21% of Meade. Its predictive model gives López Obrador a probability of 92% of winning. Figure 2. Poll of Polls (up to May 30th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s margin remains strong 40 days away from election Source: Oraculus.mx
By Miguel Toro On May 20, 2018, the four Mexican presidential candidates held their second of three debates scheduled for this campaign process. This was an unusual week prior to the debate as Margarita Zavala withdrew her independent candidacy to the presidency on Wednesday, May 16. During a televised debate, Zavala announced she was dropping out of the race, understanding that Mexico was facing a very tough decision this election and this way liberating her supporters to choose whichever option they deemed worthy. She indicated that she would start a civic movement the day after the election to try and recuperate the democratic values that have been lost in Mexican politics. It must be noted that it is difficult for any independent candidate to win the presidential election in Mexico, because from the start, they face an uphill battle in leveling the playing field in terms of campaign resources and party structure. These are some of the reasons she left the race. The main question that comes out of this situation is who will benefit from Margarita Zavala’s voters? The following weeks will reveal this situation as well as incorporate people’s opinions after the second debate. As for the debate, it is important to note that this was the first time in history that the National Electoral Institute organized a town-hall format for a debate. It addressed the topics of migration, border security, trade, and the role of Mexico in the world. The four candidates primarily focused on the relationship between Mexico and the United States and how this affects our policies on various issues. However, it was disappointing to hear that it seems that, in the world, there is only one other country and our entire foreign policy resorts to dealing with President Trump. There was very little said about Central America and nothing on Latin America or the rest of the world except for a very brief mention of the renewed free trade agreement with the European Union. In terms of quality, this debate was an important step back compared to the previous debate, as even though the audience’s questions were good and the moderators were incisive, the four candidates resorted more to platitudes and avoided going in depth on their proposals. There is this feeling that Mexican politicians have disdain towards foreign policy, as they traditionally believe the notion that the best foreign policy is domestic policy. Nevertheless, they suggested some interesting policies, which are listed below: Trade
Border Security
Migration
With respect to polls, there was only one new poll before the second debate from pollster Ipsos-Bimsa. The trends remain the same, and López Obrador continues to have a large margin. According to the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx AMLO has a 44% of voting intentions, compared to 29% for Anaya and 20% for Meade. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of May 23, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
By Miguel Toro The second month of the campaign began with a period of confrontation between front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador and some of Mexico’s most powerful business chambers. During an event with the radio and television chambers (CIRT), AMLO suggested that five of the wealthiest businessmen had been attempting to convince PAN candidate Ricardo Anaya to join, with the government, a secret alliance to defeat him. Both the government and the mentioned businessmen denied this happening and the latter paid for an ad printed in multiple newspapers titled “Not Like This,” where the Mexican Business Council (Consejo Mexicano de Negocios) –a group of the most powerful business leaders in Mexico –complained that AMLO was unfoundedly attacking them. They indicated that it was concerning that the Morena party’s presidential candidate vilifies those who think differently than him. Obviously, this received a response from López Obrador and some of his advisors who said that those businessmen did not represent the entire business community. He also said that the businessmen were attacking him because they were afraid of losing their illegal privileges that allow them to behave like oligopolies and have excessively concentrated markets where their firms were dominant. By the end of the week, the confrontation had somewhat subsided, but the most powerful business leaders seem increasingly distant from the left-wing party’s candidate. On another front, the incumbent party PRI candidate José Antonio Meade held an event in which he intended to relaunch his campaign. Sitting in third place in all polls, the former secretary of finance has had trouble connecting with voters. Thus, with the substitution of the party president, René Juárez, for Enrique Ochoa, came an attempt to spark enthusiasm among PRI supporters and double efforts to rally the vote. With the release of a book he wrote and his appearance on two television debate programs, he wanted to explain his proposals. Nevertheless, he used significant amounts of time on those shows to attack AMLO instead. The other three candidates participated in multiple campaign rallies but did not have significant events. For example, Ricardo Anaya campaigned with several of the Frente candidates for governorships. To some pollsters, it is surprising that after his successful first debate, it seems that Anaya’s campaign has wasted the opportunity to further boost his candidacy. With respect to polls, the first surveys after the debate have been released and Anaya has closed the gap slightly with AMLO. On the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx, AMLO has a 45% of voting intentions, Anaya has 31%, and Meade has 18%. Table 1. Summary of Polls Released in 4th Week of Campaigns Source: Own elaboration with data from the different surveys. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of May 10, 2018) Source: Oraculus.mx
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December 2018
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