20 days away from election day this race seems decided. Confirming last week’s Reforma and El Financiero newspaper polls, two new polls from Ulises Beltrán and Varela y Asociados were released. The first one has left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador ahead of the polls with 47% of effective voting intentions. This represents a 18 percentage point lead over runner-up Frente (PAN + PRD + Citizens’ Movement Party) candidate Ricardo Anaya (José Antonio Meade has 21% in that poll). The second poll has AMLO with a 51% of effective voting intentions, 21 percentage points ahead of Ricardo Anaya and 33 percentage points ahead of José Antonio Meade. Incorporating these numbers, in the Oraculus.mx “poll of polls”, AMLO sits at an average of 50% by 27% of Anaya and 23% of Meade. This gives López Obrador a 94% probability of winning the presidency. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (up to June 11th, 2018) Lopez Obrador’s margin is bigger than ever 20 days away from election Source: Oraculus.mx But even if the first place is almost set in stone a video that surfaced online could alter the voting intentions of the second and third places. Late Thursday June 7th, a video leaked on the internet where a man who is supposedly Juan Barreiro is being asked by a woman with an Argentine accent about business that relates to Frente candidate Ricardo Anaya. Juan Barreiro is Manuel Barreiro’s brother, who was accused of having done dirty business with Ricardo Anaya when the latter was Chief of Staff of the Queretaro governor a decade ago. Earlier this year, the Federal Government used the State’s justice institutions to try and frame Ricardo Anaya of money laundering and embezzlement accusing him of becoming rich through the sale of lands that greatly multiplied their value after the Queretaro government invested in infrastructure nearby. These accusations have not been proven and even the Electoral Tribunal ruled that the Federal Government was interfering in the election with these maneuvers. Nevertheless, the government was never attempting to win a legal battle with Ricardo Anaya, but rather their clash was in the stage of public opinion. To many people, this at least bares the question as to the origin of Ricardo Anaya’s resources. The video leaked last Thursday has the man who is supposed to be Juan Barreiro speaking that that kind of resources have been directed towards the Frente’s campaign.
Is this true? We may never know, but it was the potential of putting the last nail in the coffin of Ricardo Anaya’s campaign and preventing him from having any opportunity to reach AMLO. Will this benefit the PRI candidate José Antonio Meade? Not necessarily, because if the campaign has proven something it is that this election runs around an anti-PRI sentiment so it would not be surprising if AMLO actually benefits from potential lost voters from Anaya that would prefer him rather than the PRI. Another topic that does not directly concern the presidential campaign but was discussed last week is the fact that there have been 112 assassinated candidates in this election process. People that were running for all sorts of local positions (from mayors to members of the federal congress among others) have been killed showing the complete fragility of Mexico’s justice institutions. In some places of the country, the Rule of Law is inexistent and the impunity with which these murders are happening, signals bad times for democracy in Mexico. If people running for office are killed and nothing happens, it creates very perverse incentives for the kind of people that can run. It would seem that only people linked to criminal activities may run for many positions in a tragic institutional capture by organized crime groups. This is not the first –nor will it be the last –time that candidates in Mexico are killed during the election process, but the sheer number this year should raise concerns about the health of the country’s democracy.
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Manuel Franco
4/24/2023 10:53:44 am
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Manuel Franco
4/26/2023 02:02:10 am
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