With five months to go in Mexico’s presidential campaign, the leftist firebrand Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has mounted a sizable lead in most polls. And yet, the country’s business and financial elites seem unimpressed.
Eighty-five percent of those C-suite executives surveyed by Banco Santander last month said Lopez Obrador will be defeated in July’s vote just as he was back in 2006 and 2012. This confidence explains why Mexican markets have held up so well as Lopez Obrador -- who has made “neoliberalism” enemy No.1 in his speeches for years and pledged to roll back efforts to open up the state-run oil industry -- built his lead over a pair of more conventional candidates. The peso is the second-best currency in all of emerging markets this year and stocks have outperformed most peers.