by Miguel Toro The last week of the first month of the campaign dealt with the aftermath of the first presidential debate. It seemed that Ricardo Anaya had the best showing in the debate, thus the other candidates focused on trying to win the “post-debate.” Front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s advisers spent most of the week explaining the meaning of his “amnesty” proposal. They indicated that the amnesty proposal really signifies a peacebuilding process that involves transitional justice. As for José Antonio Meade’s campaign, they doubled down on the accusations of AMLO’s supposed two apartments. That debate actually got AMLO’s attention, who responded that those small apartments were handed over to his sons. However, it seems farfetched to think that this situation could actually do much damage to AMLO’s campaign. Nevertheless, there are still no election polls post-debate, and until then, it will not be clear if the past week had an effect on the race. With respect to the election polls, as mentioned above, no new surveys have been released so the aggregate summary of the “poll of polls” from Oraculus.mx remains unchanged, with its predictive model still believing López Obrador has a 90 percent chance of winning. Figure 1. Poll of Polls (as of April 20, 2018 Source: Oraculus.mx An interesting survey released the week before—but was overshadowed by the presidential polls and the debate news—was the Reforma newspaper survey of the Chamber of Deputies election race. On July 1st, there will be congressional elections in Mexico and both chambers have seats up for election. This survey only reflects effective voting intentions for the Chamber of Deputies but shows the overall strength of the AMLO coalition in the lower house. Based on how electoral laws are written in Mexico (i.e. that there are single-member plurality districts but also proportional representation seats in both chambers), a party (or coalition) who gets around 42 percent of the vote actually gets around absolute majority (50%+1) of congressional seats. Right now, AMLO’s coalition is really close to that threshold and, depending on what happens to the PRD after the election (especially if the Anaya Front loses), the left (Morena, PT, PRD, and maybe even the Citizens’ Movement party) could easily have absolute majority (which is needed to pass bills like the budget every year). Figure 2. Chamber of Deputies voting preferences by party (April 2018 Source: Own elaboration based on Reforma’s data. In terms of the campaign events and proposals that occurred last week, the presidential candidates went to the Tecnológico de Monterrey to speak with its students and with bankers in an annual event organized by Citibanamex. In general, they repeated their campaign slogans and main proposals, but there were some interesting developments:
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Manuel Franco
4/26/2023 02:05:53 am
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